What to expect from the media landscape in Q4 and beyond: 5 things we learned from our panel debate with GroupM

Last week, experts from across the Wavemaker UK and GroupM UK leadership teams came together to discuss the immediate and long-term effects the current socioeconomic climate will likely have on the media and advertising landscape.

Moderated by Ian Stevens, Chief Investment Officer at Wavemaker UK, the panel kicked off with a look at GroupM’s biannual This Year Next Year report, released in June and December each year. Katie Grosvenor, Chief Growth Officer at GroupM explained that in June’s report, even knowing the uncertainty to come, the report predicted 8.4% growth in advertising for 2022 globally. In digital, this figure rose to 12%. Katie went on to explain that in an ordinary year, we would expect small shifts in the predictions across the year, but the turbulence caused by the incoming energy crisis, with two thirds of the country predicted to be in fuel poverty by January 2023, the projected recession and cost of living crisis, paired with political uncertainty and conflict both at home and abroad, the trends predicted in the latest report have evolved more rapidly than in previous years.

Read below for five key takeaways for brands and insight into what’s to come in Q4 and into 2023.

An ever-evolving landscape

We can’t look at what’s happening next year unless we look at what’s happening this year explained the panel; we had a new PM announced, an inbound energy crisis, the Ukraine war, and inflation like we’ve never seen before.

Simon Willis, Chief Investment Officer at GroupM UK commented that “ordinarily we look at media trends in 12-month cycles”. If in July we started to see a downturn in TV revenues, by July next year, we would start to forecast growth on that downturn, but the current situation is very volatile.

Simon went on to state that “as we head in the back end of the year, while we are seeing a slight downturn in most categories, there are exceptions”. Elliott Millard, Head of Planning, Wavemaker UK echoed this sentiment commenting that “one of the traps brands are likely to fall into is assuming that the behaviours they need to exhibit are recessionary behaviours. A lot of the things that tend to exist around a recession are low employment and low inflation, but in fact we’re seeing the opposite of those things”.

So, in a world that might not be recessionary, but will feel recessionary, marketers need to think about the collective behaviours they should exhibit.

A bounty of opportunity

Despite the current narrative, there is a bounty of opportunity for marketers in Q4 and 2023.

Emma Moorhead, General Manager at Wavemaker UK talked in detail through how different channels have been performing and are predicted to perform. “What we’ve seen since the opening up of the world is that cinema has bounced back really quickly, attracting, in particular, young audiences. We’ve seen a 146% growth in cinema investment for this year.”

She continued that despite “headlines suggesting that box office submissions aren’t quite as strong as previously imagined, it’s important to recognise that the 2022 slate was heavily impacted by production delays in 2020 and 2021. Now these issues have net out, the 2023 slate is looking impressive, and we expect to see admissions continue on an upward trend through next year”.

Looking at OOH, Emma stated that similarly to Cinema, “OOH has seen investment flood back post-lockdown with a 24% increase in spend this year. This has created high demand resulting in lead times of up to 16 weeks. What used to be quite a short-term medium is now a channel we’re having to plan well in advance to mitigate these challenges.”

On Audio, the latest RAJAR results were remarkable. Emma commented that “For the first time in around 20 years, commercial radio has taken a higher share of listening than the BBC. This is a significant proof point that audiences still really enjoy listening to commercial radio and are listening more now than they ever have done before.”

In addition, the role digital audio is playing in the market is distinctly different to previous predictions. Emma shared that “rather than becoming disruptors and competitors to traditional audio, digital channels are complementing them; therein lies the opportunity”.

These newer channels allow brands to engage with audiences in a different way to traditional radio, allowing advertisers to tap into passion point and increase personalisation. Emma stated that “this channel is certainly one of my big bets for next year”.

In terms of print and press, Elliott added that “there’s certain information that you almost only really get from press”. He went onto comment “I think people will start to default back to traditional formats of information, less so to combat misinformation, but more of a way to find the best tips and tricks to get through the difficult months to come”.

Katie Grosvenor, Chief Growth Officer at GroupM UK and Emma shared their views that ultimately the key to is to keep spending if your brand wants to sustain and unlock growth.

The World Cup will have a profound impact on advertisers

The end of the year will see an unprecedented Q4 with the Qatar World Cup clashing with the run up to the festive season. Emma shared her enthusiasm, stating that “Q4 is set to be the most exciting quarter for TV ever.” She added that “looking back at the Men’s Euros last year, England vs Denmark reached 27 million people, and the recent Women’s Euros peaked at 17.4 million people.”

In terms of investment, Emma stated that “it’s estimated that the Men’s Euros drew around £70 million investment in TV revenues across June and July, and about £12.5 million came in as late investment off the back off England’s performance. We’re forecasting a lot of additional revenue in the market off the back of this. The current figure is £66 million; meaning that ITV revenues are up between 15 and 20%. Across November and December, the TV market consequently will likely up around 5%, but it’s hard to call as there are lots of other variables to consider too”.

In addition, Emma pointed out that “we are going to see some programming displaced. There are audiences that have no interest in football, and TV channels are preparing for the disruption. For example, the return of I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here will broadcast earlier than normal to ensure there is no significant overlap with World Cup programming”. In addition, the Premier league will be paused for the duration of the Qatar tournament.

Ultimately, brands need to decide whether they are an ‘in’ or an ‘out’ advertiser around the World Cup and plan investment that will work harder for them. For more insight on how to plan your brand’s Q4 activity, head to our Qatar World Cup content hub.

Brands must plan through a lens of responsibility

Simon talked through GroupM’s responsible framework explaining that “all of (GroupM’s) money now has to be invested within certain guidelines, from brand safety and fraud, through to data ethics and diversity, equity and inclusion.”

Simon continued that “it’s the industry’s responsibility to support traditional media, whether that’s a national title or a local title, and give it longevity within the UK. It’s imperative brands really think about where their media budgets are spent and what those channels can do for your business, from a lens of responsibility.”

Echoing Simon’s sentiment, Katie went onto say that brands should “keep your business goal in focus as a marketeer but do it with some element of social responsibility and empathy. Be understanding of people having a tough time, that they’ll have to make choices, think about your value-led narrative rather than the price-led narrative.”

GroupM have their finger on the pulse

Emma Moorhead reminded the audience that “A third of industry-wide offline spend comes through GroupM. We have better visibility than any other holding group of what TV, Audio, Cinema and other offline channel spend look like”.

Simon Willis echoed this by reassuring listeners that the group offers agility, “we will work with you; GroupM will be feeding into Wavemaker about what’s going on in the market, so we can help you adjust your media plans to adapt to changes and trends.

Ian Stevens added “Your challenges today aren’t going to be your challenge next month, so stay close and tap into the power of GroupM, your agency and your specialists”.