This Year, Next Year: Ecommerce Forecast Report
Ecommerce has been the winner in 2020, and there is a new plateau for newly accelerated future growth. CPG manufacturers, in particular, experienced a significant transition in how their products were bought, leading to a 277% increase in retail sales via ecommerce channels in 2Q20 alone.
In GroupM’s first ever ecommerce forecast, a country-specific estimates of historical and forecasted consumer ecommerce spending within many of the world’s largest retail economies was developed.
Here are the key takeaways from the This Year, Next Year: Ecommerce Forecast Report:
Ecommerce’s Future: the ecommerce boom has allowed us to estimate $10 trillion in retail ecommerce sales by 2027.
- By 2024 retail-focused ecommerce will amount to $7 trillion in annual sales activity, or 25% of retail sales at that time.
- If growth continues at a low double-digit pace in subsequent years, then, by 2027, ecommerce sales would amount to $10 trillion globally.
- Significantly faster rates of growth in ecommerce sales during 1Q20 and 2Q20; continued elevated sales in 3Q20 in both Canada and Australia
Impact for Marketers: omnichannel strategies are increasingly important as ecommerce continues to grow as people adopt and onboard online shopping in more product categories. It will also continue to grow as the very concept of retailing evolves.
- Retailers are forced to re-think and adapt strategies for retail management, store layout and location, customer service and more.
- Many also exploring social commerce, which is becoming an increasingly important component of a retail ecommerce strategy.
- While automotive has adopted ecommerce during the pandemic, and we’ve previously advocated for that gap to be bridged more going forward, it’s unlikely they transition to an ecommerce-based business because consumers will have a low propensity to buy those categories online over the long term.
The report is authored by Brian Wieser (GroupM), with Mudit Jaju (Wavemaker) as a main contributor.
